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Pierangelo Garegnani
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Seminar
Tuesday 27 March 2018
In collaboration with Dipartimento di Economia, Università Roma Tre
Invented in America. Birth and Evolution of the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Rule, 1933-1961
Orsola Costantini (Senior economist at Institute for New Economic Thinking and Visiting Professor at La Sapienza University of Rome)
Abstract
:
The idea of balancing the budget over the cycle was first conceived in the 1930s by the economists of the Stockholm School. But during and after World War II in the US, it was reinterpreted fundamentally and incorporated into the fiscal program of the New Deal coalition. In the 1960s, Keynesian economists associated with the Kennedy and Johnson administrations reformulated yet again the notion. Drawing on archival sources that have only recently become available, we develop an account of this history that differs substantially from earlier studies. We find that, despite the differing formulas and policy prescriptions, the changing terminology, and the rhetorical claims at each time, some common threads about the idea and use of the cyclically adjusted budget estimate exist.
Industrial Structure and Political Outcomes: The Case of the 2016 US Presidential Election
Thomas Ferguson (University of Massachusetts Boston)
Abstract
:
The U.S. presidential election of 2016 featured frontal challenges to the political establishments of both parties and perhaps the most shocking election upset in American history. This paper analyzes patterns of industrial structure and party competition in both the major party primaries and the general election. It attempts to identify the genuinely new, historically specific factors that led to the upheavals, especially the steady growth of a “dual economy” that locks more and more Americans out of the middle class and into a life of unsteady, low wage employment and, all too often, steep debts. The paper draws extensively on a newly assembled, more comprehensive database of political contributions to identify the specific political forces that coalesced around each candidate. It considers in detail how different investor blocs related to the Republican Party and the Trump campaign as the campaign progressed and the role small contributors played in the various campaigns, especially that of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. It also critically evaluates claims about the final weeks of the election in the light of important overlooked evidence.
Dipartimento di Economia - Via Silvio D'Amico 77, Roma
h 14:30 - room 18
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